FBM KLCI continues rally on relief from 90-day US-China tariff ceasefire

Bursa Malaysia’s early-session wobble gave way to a broad-based rebound after Washington and Beijing confirmed a fresh 90-day extension to their tariff ceasefire. The Star flagged the quick reversal at the open as buyers rotated back into heavyweights and PETRONAS-linked names, with the benchmark climbing after an initial dip.

The truce matters for optics and for cash flows. It averts a step-function jump to triple-digit duties on both sides (U.S. tariffs that could have surged toward 145% and Chinese levies toward 125%), keeping the current, lower rates in place and removing a near-term shock to regional supply chains. That headline alone releases pressure on ASEAN equities that have spent months discounting tail-risk.

Context helps. Asian markets broadly firmed on the announcement, aided by softer rate expectations in developed markets. Japan outperformed; China lagged. In other words, risk appetite returned, but selectively. For Malaysia, that nuance shows up in leadership by energy and defensives rather than a wholesale beta chase. The morning strength in oil prices after the truce extension reinforced the bid for PETRONAS-exposed counters and upstream services.

Currency dynamics are aligned, not euphoric. The ringgit strengthened against the U.S. dollar and regional peers into midday trade, helped by the calmer tariff backdrop and local macro catalysts ahead of Q2 GDP. A slightly firmer currency eases imported cost pressures and can support consumption-facing names, even as exporters see a modest translation headwind. This is a tradeable reprieve, not a secular FX turn.

Strategically, investors should read this as time bought, not risk removed. The extension pauses escalation; it does not unwind the post-2018 scaffolding of baseline tariffs, export controls, and licensing regimes that now anchor corporate planning. Reuters’ tariff tracker underscores the persistence of a 10% U.S. baseline across imports, layered with sector- and country-specific add-ons, an architecture that continues to shape capex localization and supply-chain redundancy. Malaysian corporates with China-exposed demand or inputs therefore get relief on volatility, not a full reset on operating conditions.

Sectorally, three lenses frame the near term. Energy benefits from the tariff-calmer demand outlook and firmer crude, supporting cash-rich incumbents and service providers. E&E (still Malaysia’s fulcrum to global manufacturing) gains from the removal of a tariff cliff, yet remains hostage to export-control norms in advanced chips and equipment; stabilization beats expansion here. Banks enjoy a gentler credit-risk contour as market stress recedes and the ringgit steadies, but loan growth won’t suddenly re-rate without clearer external demand. The morning tape (where the index rose even after opening softer) mirrored exactly that: relief buying rather than a regime change.

Regionally, divergence will continue to define performance. Markets with clearer tariff outcomes or domestic easing cycles are already being rewarded. Malaysia’s path sits between Singapore’s macro-stability premium and Thailand’s more tariff-sensitive equity narrative. With foreigners light in Malaysia after months of outflows tied to tariff uncertainty, even small positive policy signals can trigger incremental re-risking, but allocators remain benchmark-cautious and are likely to concentrate on liquid, dividend-reliable names rather than chase beta.

What to watch next is not the index in isolation but the policy calendar that underwrites it. If the 90-day window culminates in another rollover, markets will increasingly price the truce as a managed status quo rather than a bridge to settlement, supportive for volatility, neutral for growth. Conversely, any glide path toward reducing baseline rates would allow Malaysia’s exporters to guide with more conviction into 2026 order books. In the interim, domestic prints (GDP, inflation, and Bank Negara’s stance) will decide whether local demand can offset an external cycle that remains capped by policy friction.

For now, the FBM KLCI 90-day US-China tariff truce narrative buys breathing space. The rally is warranted; the restraint is appropriate. This pivot reads less like transformation and more like margin management of geopolitical risk, and that’s enough, for a day.

The FBM KLCI is reacting to a change in temperature, not a change in climate. The 90-day truce reduces headline risk, steadies earnings multiples, and invites measured risk-taking in high quality banks, energy bellwethers, and cash generative exporters. It does not erase the embedded costs of a bifurcated trading system or the compliance drag around tech supply chains. Use this window to upgrade portfolios, tidy hedges, and reassess currency assumptions before catalysts arrive for investors. If progress stalls, volatility returns quickly. If talks broaden into tariff rollbacks, Malaysia’s cyclical earnings could finally catch a durable bid into 2026.