Market strategist says Trump tariffs complicate investing, but ‘plenty of opportunities’ remain

Tariffs are back in the headlines—and not the “just a small policy tweak” kind. We’re talking big, messy, and unpredictable moves that have left global markets looking like a chart straight out of a crypto meme page. One day the S&P 500’s up, the next it’s down, and somewhere in between you’re wondering if you should just move everything into a savings account and call it a day.

But here’s the thing: tariff-driven volatility doesn’t automatically mean you should hit the panic button. In fact, history shows that the stock market can be surprisingly chill over the long haul, even when trade wars heat up. What really matters is knowing how to position yourself so you’re not caught holding the bag when policy shifts catch the market off-guard.

Let’s unpack what’s going on, why it matters for your portfolio, and how you can actually use tools like ETFs, sector rotations, and even crypto as a defensive play while the tariff drama unfolds.

President Donald Trump’s latest tariff moves have redrawn the map for global trade—again. On Thursday, “reciprocal” tariffs hit a ton of U.S. trading partners, basically saying: “If you tax us, we tax you back.” And then, in classic plot-twist fashion, he announced a 100% tariff on imported semiconductor chips… with a carve-out for companies building in the U.S.

Translation: the rules of the game are changing fast, and if your portfolio is heavy in companies that depend on overseas manufacturing, you’re exposed to more risk than you might think.

It’s not just a headline thing either. The effective U.S. tariff rate is set to jump from 2.3% last year to around 17%, the highest since the 1930s. That’s a big jump, and it’s going to ripple through supply chains, prices, and corporate earnings.

If you were expecting the S&P 500 to nosedive on all this, surprise—it’s actually up about 12% since April’s so-called “Liberation Day,” when Trump started rolling out his latest tariff blitz. That tells us two things:

1. Markets are stubbornly optimistic. There’s a lot of liquidity out there, and investors are still buying dips.
2. Short-term headlines aren’t the full story. Just because stocks didn’t crash immediately doesn’t mean tariffs aren’t reshaping where the winners and losers will be over the next few years.

The “patience trumps panic” mantra still holds up. But if you’re a tactical investor (meaning you don’t just throw everything into an index fund and forget about it), there’s room to adjust without making panic moves.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are having a moment—and not just because they’re the investing equivalent of a build-your-own snack pack. When tariffs hit, entire sectors or regions can shift in performance. ETFs let you play those shifts without betting the farm on a single company.

Think of it like this: instead of putting all your chips on one factory in Taiwan, you can buy an ETF that spreads your risk across multiple suppliers, countries, or even entire industries.

Here’s why ETFs work in a tariff environment:

• Sector Flexibility: You can tilt toward sectors that are less exposed to import tariffs, like utilities or financials, while avoiding those more at risk, like consumer discretionary and industrials.
• Geographic Diversification: If one region gets hit with higher tariffs, ETFs let you pivot to other markets without dumping your whole portfolio.
• Lower Company-Specific Risk: A single company losing a key supplier can tank its stock. An ETF spreads that risk.

Since early April, some of the top-performing ETFs haven’t been in the usual tariff-resistant sectors—they’ve been in places you might not expect.

• Crypto ETFs: Digital assets don’t get slapped with import tariffs. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, crypto often sees a spike in interest as a hedge against currency and policy risk. It’s not foolproof (crypto has its own volatility), but the logic is simple: no customs form, no tariff.
• Nuclear Energy ETFs: As countries look for stable energy sources, nuclear becomes more attractive—especially if tariffs make other inputs (like solar components) pricier.

Both of these plays have been gaining momentum, but they’re not one-size-fits-all. Crypto ETFs, for example, can swing wildly in value. Nuclear ETFs are tied to policy support and long-term infrastructure commitments, which can shift.

Here’s the litmus test:

• Does it fit your risk tolerance? If a 20% drop would keep you up at night, high-volatility ETFs like those tied to crypto might not be for you.
• Does it align with your time horizon? ETFs tied to long-term themes (like nuclear) need years to play out.
• Is it overhyped? If every TikTok finance influencer is talking about it, take a breath. The price might already reflect the hype.

Bottom line: ETFs can smooth out some tariff risk, but you still need to be strategic about which ones you pick and why.

Tariffs don’t hit every sector equally. Some are directly in the crosshairs, while others are more insulated.

Most Exposed:

• Consumer Discretionary: Retailers selling imported electronics, clothing, and home goods could see costs rise. Unless they can pass those costs to consumers (tough in a slowing economy), margins get squeezed.
• Industrials: Think transportation and logistics companies like UPS and FedEx, which depend on global trade flows. Lower import volumes mean less business.
• Materials: Tariffs on metals like steel and aluminum push up input costs for manufacturers.

Less Exposed:

• Utilities: Mostly domestic, heavily regulated, and not dependent on global supply chains.
• Financials: Banks aren’t shipping goods—they’re providing services, making them less tariff-sensitive.

And then there’s Tech, which is a mixed bag. Some products, like smartphones and laptops, have been spared from tariffs so far. But supply chain disruptions can still cause headaches for manufacturers and investors alike.

Let’s be real—crypto is still risky. But in a world where tariffs can shake up entire industries overnight, having an asset class that sits outside traditional trade flows can be appealing.

When tariffs create uncertainty in global markets, investors sometimes turn to Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other digital assets as a hedge against currency volatility and policy unpredictability. That doesn’t mean you throw half your portfolio into crypto. But a small, calculated allocation—especially via a reputable ETF or directly in a wallet you control—can add diversification.

Pro tip: if you’re new to crypto, start small, stick to major coins, and keep your assets off exchanges you don’t trust.

Here’s where most investors trip up in a tariff environment: they overreact to headlines. Yes, tariffs can hurt specific companies or sectors. But making big moves every time a new policy drops is like changing your workout plan after every fitness TikTok—you’ll never build momentum.

Instead:

• Check your allocation: Make sure you’re not overexposed to high-risk sectors.
• Think in years, not weeks: If your investments can survive multiple policy cycles, you’re less likely to get whiplash.
• Use volatility to your advantage: If you’ve had your eye on a quality ETF or stock, tariff-induced dips can be buying opportunities.

Tariffs are just one piece of the puzzle. Other Trump administration policies—like tweaks to tax rules for research and development—can boost certain companies even while tariffs weigh on others. That’s why a narrow focus on tariffs alone misses the full investing picture. For example, a tech company might benefit from both R&D tax breaks and tariff exemptions on consumer electronics, making it more resilient than you’d expect from a surface-level analysis.

Investing during tariffs is basically about managing two realities at once:

1. The long-term resilience of markets.
2. The short-term chaos of policy swings.

You don’t need to predict every twist in the trade war to come out ahead. What you do need is a flexible toolkit: sector rotation through ETFs, selective exposure to alternative assets like crypto, and the discipline to stick to your time horizon. If you treat tariffs like the only story in town, you’ll either overreact or freeze. If you treat them as one variable in a bigger equation, you’ll be in a much better position to ride out the noise—and maybe even take advantage of it.

So no, you don’t need to go “all cash” or “all in” on the latest tariff-proof play. Just make sure your portfolio isn’t stuck in a corner when the rules change again—because in this market, they will.